In the former Eastern Bloc countries, there have been dramatic changes in forest disturbance and forest recovery rates since the collapse of the Soviet Union, due to the transition to open-market economies, and the recent economic crisis. Unfortunately though, Eastern European countries collected their forest statistics inconsistently, and their boundaries have changed, making it difficult to analyze forest dynamics over time. Our goal here was to consistently quantify forest cover change across Eastern Europe since the 1980s based on the Landsat image archive. We developed an algorithm to simultaneously process data from different Landsat platforms and sensors (TM and ETM+) to map annual forest cover loss and decadal forest cover gain. We processed 59,539 Landsat images for 527 footprints across Eastern Europe and European Russia. Our results were highly accurate, with gross forest loss producer's and user's accuracy of N88% and N89%, respectively, and gross forest gain producer's and user's accuracy of N75% and N91%, based on a sample of probability-based validation points.We found substantial changes in the forest cover of Eastern Europe. Net forest cover increased from 1985 to 2012 by 4.7% across the region, but decreased in Estonia and Latvia. Average annual gross forest cover loss was 0.41% of total forest cover area, with a statistically significant increase from 1985 to 2012. Timber harvesting was the main cause of forest loss, accompanied by some insect defoliation and forest conversion, while only 7.4% of the total forest cover loss was due to large-scale wildfires and windstorms. Overall, the countries of Eastern Europe experienced constant levels or declines in forest loss after the collapse of socialism in the late 1980s, but a pronounced increase in loss in the early 2000s. By the late 2000s, however, the global economic crisis coincided with reduced timber harvesting in most countries, except Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic states. Most forest disturbance did not result in a permanent forest loss during our study period. Indeed, forest generally recovered fast and only 12% of the areas of forest loss prior to 1995 had not yet recovered by 2012. Our results allow national and sub-national level analysis and are available on-line (http://glad.geog.umd.edu/europe/) to serve as a baseline for further analyses of forest dynamics and its drivers.
File: Potapov_etal_RSE_2015.pdf
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Rapid and ongoing change creates novelty in ecosystems everywhere, bot when comparing contemporary systems to their historical baselines, and predicted futur systems to the present. However, the level of novelty varies greatly among places. Here w propose a formal and quantifiable definition of abiotic and biotic novelty in ecosystems, ma abiotic novelty globally, and discuss the implications of novelty for the science of ecology an for biodiversity conservation. We define novelty as the degree of dissimilarity of a system measured in one or more dimensions relative to a reference baseline, usually defined as eithe the present or a time window in the past. In this conceptualization, novelty varies in degree, i is multidimensional, can be measured, and requires a temporal and spatial reference. Thi definition moves beyond prior categorical definitions of novel ecosystems, and does no include human agency, self-perpetuation, or irreversibility as criteria. Our global assessment o novelty was based on abiotic factors (temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition) plu human population, and shows that there are already large areas with high novelty toda relative to the early 20th century, and that there will even be more such areas by 2050 Interestingly, the places that are most novel are often not the places where absolute change are largest; highlighting that novelty is inherently different from change. For the ecologica sciences, highly novel ecosystems present new opportunities to test ecological theories, but als challenge the predictive ability of ecological models and their validation. For biodiversit conservation, increasing novelty presents some opportunities, but largely challenges Conservation action is necessary along the entire continuum of novelty, by redoubling effort to protect areas where novelty is low, identifying conservation opportunities where novelty i high, developing flexible yet strong regulations and policies, and establishing long-ter experiments to test management approaches. Meeting the challenge of novelty will requir advances in the science of ecology, and new and creative conservation approaches.
File: Radeloff_Williams_etal_EcoApps2015.pdf
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Land-use change can strongly affect wildlife populations, typically via habitat loss and degradation where land us expands, and also via increasing potentially available habitat where land use ceases. Large mammals are particularl sensitive to land-use change, because they require large tracts of habitat and often depend on habitat outsid protected areas unless protected areas are very large. Our research question was thus how land-use change aroun protected areas affects large mammals' habitat. Russia experienced drastic land-use change after the breakdown o the Soviet Union and – fortunately – wildlife data has been collected continuously throughout this time insid protected areas. We used long-term winter track count data for wild boar (Sus scrofa), moose (Alces alces), an wolf (Canis lupus) to assess habitat change inside and outside of Oksky State Nature Reserve from 1987 to 200 using a time-calibrated species distribution model. Our results showed a constantly high share (at least 89%) of suitabl habitat within the protected area's core zone for each species, yet also substantial habitat increases of up to 23%within the protected buffer zone, and similarly, up to 27% outside the protected area. Of the variables we evaluated post-Soviet land-use change, particularly farmland abandonment, was the main driver of this expansion of potentia habitat for the three species we assessed. Our study highlights that strictly protected areas have been playing an importan role in preserving wildlife in European Russia since 1991, and also that their surroundings provide muc suitable habitat for large mammals. Post-Soviet land-use change in the surroundings of protected areas may provid opportunities to increase and connect wildlife populations.
File: Sieber_etal_2015_BioCons.pdf
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We estimate the impact of strict and multiple-use protected areas on forest disturbance in European Russia between 1985 and 2010. We construct a spatial panel dataset that includes five periods of change. We match protected areas to control observations and compare coefficients from fixedversus random-effects models. We find that protected areas have few statistically significant impacts on disturbance, with little difference across parks closer to or farther from major cities or roads. Random-effects estimates differ qualitatively and quantitatively from those of fixed effects in our study, serving as a cautionary note for evaluations where time-invariant unobservables are important.
File: Wendland_etal_LandEconomics_2015.pdf
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Major changes in land cover can result from distant political, social, and environmental forces. Over the last 50 years, many technological innovations and political changes have transformed agriculture in Europe, resulting in substantial decrease of farmland area in many parts of the continent that potentially signify a shift in European land use systems. However, the relative importance of technological advances and agricultural policy to these changes is not well understood, and our goal here was to disentangle them. Because of its unique political context, Spain offers an ideal laboratory to investigate the impacts of technological and political innovations to regime change in land systems. During the time when agricultural innovation was at its peak (1960-1980) Spain was not part of the European Economic Community (EEC). The Spanish agricultural sector then experienced a shock after joining the EEC in 1986. Using historical aerial photographs, land use maps, and Farm Structure Surveys as our reference data, we compared changes in land cover in Terra Cha, a district of Northwest Spain from 1956-1984 and 1984-2005, i.e., approximately before and after the EEC accession in 1986, using spatially explicit multinomial logit models to quantify the relative impacts of technological innovation and political change on agriculture and forest lands. In our study area much more substantial shifts in agricultural and forest land took place after EEC accession than before. The dominant shift was a substantial increase in forest cover (from 7% to 31% of the landscape) and concurrent loss of agriculture (from 45% to 38%) and shrubland (from 46% to 27%). The role of drivers acting at parcel level was constant between time periods, which suggests that accession to EEC was a strong driver of change.
File: Corbelle-Rico_etal_LandUsePolicy_2015.pdf
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Identifying the pollinators of Rhododendron species is of great interest due to potential conservation threats in the native range of the genus, but the pollinators of species in Rhododendron subgenus Hymenanthes section Pontica subsection Neriiflora are unknown. Bees (Hymenoptera; family Apidae) are thought to be the pollinators of many Rhododendron species; however, species in subsection Neriiflora have ornithophilous floral morphology. We studied R. floccigerum (subsection Neriiflora) to determine the identities of visiting, potentially pollinating, and robbing species through in-person and time lapsed camera trap observations. We compared floral morphological characteristics of R. floccigerum with visitor morphological measurements to determine if visitors could fit inside the corolla. Thirteen species were observed visiting R. floccigerum (two insects, two mammals, and nine birds) and this study provides the first empirical evidence of both bird and mammal visitors to Rhododendron species. We determined that the following species are potential pollinators: Bombus sp. (an insect genus), Aethopyga gouldiae, Garrulax affinis, Heterophasia melanoleuca, and Yuhina diademata (all bird species), and we suspect that Apis sp. (an insect genus), Dremomys pernyi, Tamiops swinhoei (two mammal species), Minla ignotincta, M. strigula, Parus major, and Phylloscopus affinis (four bird species) likely rob R. floccigerum. All visitors were able to fit their heads/bodies into the corolla. We also found that though predation is frequent, the number of robbers and variety of robbing methods is unlikely to contribute to floral morphological evolution or speciation. Further understanding of the pollination biology of species in subgenus Hymenanthes will allow for effective conservation.
File: Georgian_etal_2015_PollinationEcology.pdf
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Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a 'businessas-usual' scenario and a 'pro-agriculture' scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of landuse change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.
File: Hamilton_etal_EnvCons_2015_0.pdf
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During the Soviet Virgin Lands Campaign, approximately 23 million hectares (Mha) of Eurasian stepp grassland were converted into cropland in Northern Kazakhstan from 1954 to 1963. As a resul Kazakhstan became an important breadbasket of the former Soviet Union. However, the collapse of th Soviet Union in 1991 triggered widespread agricultural abandonment, and much cropland reverted t grasslands. Our goal in this study was to reconstruct and analyze agricultural land-cover change since th eve of the Virgin Lands Campaign,from 1953 to 2010 in Kostanay Province, a region that is representativ of Northern Kazakhstan. Further, we assessed the potential of currently idle cropland for re-cultivation We reconstructed the cropland extent before and after the Virgin Lands Campaign using archival maps and we mapped the agricultural land cover in the late Soviet and post-Soviet period using multi-seasona Landsat TM/ETM+ images from circa 1990, 2000 and 2010. Cropland extent peaked at approximatel 3.1 Mha in our study area in 1990, 38% of which had been converted from grasslands from 1954 to 1961 After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 45% of the Soviet cropland was abandoned and had reverted t grassland by 2000. After 2000, cropland contraction and re-cultivation were balanced. Using spatia logistic regressions we found that cropland expansion during the Virgin Lands Campaign wa significantly associated with favorable agro-environmental conditions. In contrast, cropland expansio after the Campaign until 1990, as well as cropland contraction after 1990, occurred mainly in areas tha were less favorable for agriculture. Cropland re-cultivation after 2000 was occurring on lands wit relatively favorable agro-environmental conditions in comparison to remaining idle croplands, albei with much lower agro-environmental endowment compared to stable croplands from 1990 to 2010. I sum, we found that cropland production potentials of the currently uncultivated areas are much lowe than commonly believed, and further cropland expansion is only possible at the expense of margina lands. Our results suggest if increasing production is a goal, improving crop yields in currently cultivate lands should be a focus, whereas extensive livestock grazing as well as the conservation of nonprovisionin ecosystem services and biodiversity should be priority on more marginal lands.
File: Kraemer_etal_2015_EnvResLet.pdf
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Land use change around protected areas can diminish their conservation value, making it important t predict future land use changes nearby. Our goal was to evaluate future land use changes around protecte areas of different types in the United States under different socioeconomic scenarios. We analyze econometric-based projections of future land use change to capture changes around 1260 protecte areas, including National Forests, Parks, Refuges, and Wilderness Areas, from 2001 to 2051, under differen land use policies and crop prices. Our results showed that urban expansion around protected area will continue to be a major threat, and expand by 67% under business-as-usual conditions Concomitantly, a substantial number of protected areas will lose natural vegetation in their surroundings National land-use policies or changes in crop prices are not likely to affect the overall pattern of land use but can have effects in certain regions. Discouraging urbanization through zoning, for example, ca reduce future urban pressures around National Forests and Refuges in the East, while the implementatio of an afforestation policy can increase the amount of natural vegetation around some Refuges throughou the U.S. On the other hand, increases in crop prices can increase crop/pasture cover around some protecte areas, and limit the potential recovery of natural vegetation. Overall, our results highlight that futur land-use change around protected areas is likely to be substantial but variable among regions an protected area types. Safeguarding the conservation value of protected areas may require serious consideratio of threats and opportunities arising from future land use
File: Martinuzzi_etal_2015_BioCons.pdf
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Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate and non-native species are altering environmenta conditions, resulting in more nove communities with unprecedented species combinations Understanding how future anthropogeni changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is importan to advance environmental management an ecological research in the Anthropocene. The mai goal of this study was to understand how alternativ scenarios of future land-use change may affect novelt in ecosystems throughout the conterminou United States. We used five spatially explicit scenario of future land-use changes, reflecting differen land-use policies and changes in agricultural markets to quantify andmap potential drivers of novelty Our results showed large areas where futureland-us changes may increase novelty in ecosystems. Th major land-use changes known to increase novelty including land abandonment and land-use expansion were widespread in all scenarios (73 million t 95 million ha), especially in the eastern U.S. an along the West Coast. Our scenarios revealed that, a broad scales, future land-use changes will increas novelty in ecosystems, and that traditional conservatio policies may have limited ability to preven the process. In places such as the eastern U.S., conservin and maintaining historical conditions an associated biological diversity may become increasingl difficult due to future land-use changes an related ecological factors. Successful biodiversit conservation and environmental management in th Anthropocene will require novel conservation approache to be relevant in areas with high levels o novelty in ecosystems.
File: Martinuzzi_etal_2015_Ecosystems.pdf
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