Remotely sensed data can help to identify both suitable habitat for individual species, and environmental conditions
that foster species richness, which is important when predicting how biodiversity will respond to global change. The
question is how to summarize remotely sensed data so that they are most relevant for biodiversity analyses, and the
Dynamic Habitat Indices are three metrics designed for this. Our goals here were to a) derive, for the first time, the
Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs) globally, and b) use these to evaluate three hypotheses (available energy, environmental
stress, and environmental stability) that attempt to explain global variation in species richness of
amphibians, birds, and mammals. The three DHIs summarize three key measures of vegetative productivity: a)
annual cumulative productivity, which we used to evaluate the available energy hypothesis that more energy is
associate with higher species richness; b) minimum productivity throughout the year, which we used to evaluate the
environmental stress hypothesis that higher minima cause higher species richness, and c) seasonality, expressed as
the annual coefficient of variation in productivity, which we used to evaluate the environmental stability hypothesis
that less intra-annual variability causes higher species richness. We calculated the DHIs globally at 1-km resolution
from MODIS vegetation products (NDVI, EVI, LAI, fPAR, and GPP), based on the median of the good observations of
all years from the entire MODIS record for each of the 23 or 46 possible dates (8- vs. 16-day composites) during the
year, and calculated species richness for three taxa (amphibians, birds, and mammals) at 110-km resolution from
species range maps from the IUCN Red List. We found marked global patterns of the DHIs, and strong support for all
three hypotheses. The three DHIs for a given vegetation product were well correlated (Spearman rank correlations
ranging from −0.6 (cumulative vs. variation DHIs) to −0.93 (variation vs. minimum DHI)). Similarly, DHI components
derived from different MODIS vegetation products were well correlated (0.8–0.9), and correlations of the
DHIs with temperature and precipitation were moderate and strong respectively. All three DHIs were well correlated
with species richness, showing in ranked order positive correlations for cumulative DHI based on GPP (Spearman
rank correlations of 0.75, 0.63, and 0.67 for amphibians, resident birds, and mammals respectively) and minimum
DHI (0.73, 0.83, and 0.62), and negative for variation DHI (−0.69, −0.83, and −0.59). Multiple linear models of all
three DHIs explained 67%, 65%, and 61% of the variability in species richness of amphibians, resident birds, and
mammals, respectively. The DHIs, which are closely related to well-established ecological hypotheses of biodiversity,
can predict species richness well, and are promising for application in biodiversity science and conservation.
File: Radeloff_Global_DHIs_RSE_2019.pdf
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Aim: Populations of large ungulates are dwindling worldwide. This is especially so for
wild sheep, which compete with livestock for forage, are disturbed by shepherds and
their dogs, and are exposed to disease transmissions from livestock. Our aim was to
assess spatial patterns in realized niche overlap between wild and domestic sheep to
better understand where potential competition might arise, and thus to identify priority
areas for wild sheep recovery.
Location: Southern Caucasus (220,000 km2).
Methods: We studied Gmelin’s mouflon (Ovis orientalis gmelinii), an ancestor of domestic
sheep, to investigate seasonal habitat use and niche overlap with domestic
sheep. To map habitat, we analysed mouflon occurrences collected during 2006–
2016, and domestic sheep occurrences from shepherd camp locations digitized on
high-resolution
satellite imagery. We mapped areas of potential competition between
mouflon and domestic sheep and assessed potential habitat displacement.
Results: Mouflon and domestic sheep niches overlapped substantially (overlap index
I = 0.89, where 1 means perfect overlap) but were not identical. Mouflon habitat was
less widespread than domestic sheep habitat (14,000 vs. 40,270 km2) and tended to
be located in more rugged areas with less vegetation cover. We identified 51 priority
patches as reintroduction candidates if grazing pressure and poaching were
reduced.
Main conclusions: Our results suggest that competition with domestic sheep might
have pushed mouflon into marginal habitat. Thus, conservation efforts focusing on
current mouflon habitat might miss suitable reintroduction sites. We demonstrate
that a combined habitat model for wild and domestic sheep can identify general
sheep habitat, which might be more useful for conservation planning than understanding
current mouflon habitat selection. Our results highlight that considering
competition with livestock is important for large ungulate conservation, both in
terms of reactive (e.g., lessening livestock pressure in prime habitat) and proactive
strategies (e.g., reintroduction in areas with low contemporary overlap).
File: Bleyhl_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf
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Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production
and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We
estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for
180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the
shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP
pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)·y−1
in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes
within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2030
under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is
a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e·y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2065)
under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock
is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under
favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for
the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1%
of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the
HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use
HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving
market forces.
File: Johnston_etal_PNAS_2019.pdf
Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production
and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We
estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for
180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the
shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP
pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)·y−1
in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes
within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2030
under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is
a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e·y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2065)
under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock
is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under
favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for
the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1%
of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the
HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use
HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving
market forces.
Public lands provide many ecosystem services and support diverse plant and animal
communities. In order to provide these benefits in the future, land managers and policy
makers need information about future climate change and its potential effects. In particular,
weather extremes are key drivers of wildfires, droughts, and false springs, which in turn can
have large impacts on ecosystems. However, information on future changes in weather
extremes on public lands is lacking. Our goal was to compare historical (1950–2005) and projected
mid-century (2041–2070) changes in weather extremes (fire weather, spring droughts,
and false springs) on public lands. This case study looked at the lands managed by the U.S.
Forest Service across the conterminous United States including 501 ranger district units. We
analyzed downscaled projections of daily records from 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project 5 General Circulation Models for two climate scenarios, with either medium-low or
high CO2 equivalent concentration (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). For each ranger district, we estimated:
(1) fire potential, using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index; (2) frequency of spring
droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Index; and (3) frequency of false springs, using
the extended Spring Indices. We found that future climates could substantially alter weather
conditions across Forest Service lands. Under the two climate scenarios, increases in wildfire
potential, spring droughts, and false springs were projected in 32–72%, 28–29%, and 13–16%
of all ranger districts, respectively. Moreover, a substantial number of ranger districts
(17–30%), especially in the Southwestern, Pacific Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions,
were projected to see increases in more than one type of weather extreme, which may require
special management attention. We suggest that future changes in weather extremes could
threaten the ability of public lands to provide ecosystem services and ecological benefits to
society. Overall, our results highlight the value of spatially-explicit weather projections to
assess future changes in key weather extremes for land managers and policy makers.
File: Martinuzzi_et_al-2019-Ecological_Applications.pdf
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When political regimes fall, economic conditions change and wildlife protection can be undermined. Eastern
European countries experienced turmoil following the collapse of socialism in the early 1990s, raising the
question of how wildlife was affected. We show that the aftermath of the collapse changed the population
growth rates of various wildlife taxa. We analyzed populations of moose (Alces alces), wild boar (Sus scrofa),
red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx
lynx), and gray wolf (Canis lupus) in nine countries. Population growth rates changed in 32 out of 49 time
series. In the countries that reformed slowly, many species exhibited rapid population declines, and
population
growth rates changed in 83% of the time series. In contrast, in countries with fast post-socialism
reforms, many populations increased rapidly, and growth rates changed in only 48% of time series. Our
results suggest that the direction and frequency of the changes were associated with socioeconomic
conditions,
and that wildlife populations can be greatly affected by socioeconomic upheavals.
File: Bragina2018_WildlifePop_Frontiers.pdf
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Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they
are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors
influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper
understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we
develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species'
trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We
also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We
found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction
correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and
taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and
human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were
especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically
uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently
recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose
them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened
species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly
40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at
0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk
exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into
species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk.
They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic
regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in
the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added
impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction
and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.
File: Davidson2017_MammalExtinct_Plos1.pdf
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Conservation priorities that are based on species distribution,
endemism, and vulnerability may underrepresent biologically
unique species as well as their functional roles and evolutionary
histories. To ensure that priorities are biologically comprehensive,
multiple dimensions of diversity must be considered. Further,
understanding how the different dimensions relate to one another
spatially is important for conservation prioritization, but the
relationship remains poorly understood. Here, we use spatial
conservation planning to (i) identify and compare priority regions
for global mammal conservation across three key dimensions of
biodiversity—taxonomic, phylogenetic, and traits—and (ii) determine
the overlap of these regions with the locations of threatened
species and existing protected areas. We show that priority areas
for mammal conservation exhibit low overlap across the three
dimensions, highlighting the need for an integrative approach
for biodiversity conservation. Additionally, currently protected
areas poorly represent the three dimensions of mammalian biodiversity.
We identify areas of high conservation priority among
and across the dimensions that should receive special attention
for expanding the global protected area network. These highpriority
areas, combined with areas of high priority for other taxonomic
groups and with social, economic, and political considerations,
provide a biological foundation for future conservation
planning efforts.
File: Brum2017_mammals_PNAS.pdf
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When timber harvesting is an important source of
local income and forest resources are declining, even
forests that are designated as protected areas may
become vulnerable. Therefore, regular monitoring
of forest disturbance is necessary to enforce the
protection of forest ecosystems. However, mapping
forest disturbance with satellite imagery can be
complicated if the majority of the harvesting is
selective logging and not clearcuts. Our goal was to
map both selective logging and clearcuts within and
outside of protected areas in Western Siberia, a region
with a highly developed timber industry. Combining
summer and winter imagery allowed us to accurately
estimate not only clearcuts, but also selective logging.
Winter Landsat images substantially improved our
classification and resulted in a highly accurate forest
disturbance map (97.5% overall accuracy and 86%
user accuracy for the rarest class, clearcuts). Selective
logging and stripcuts were the dominant disturbance
types, accounting for 96.3% of all forest disturbances,
versus 3.7% for clearcuts. The total annual forest
disturbance rate (i.e. disturbance rate for clearcuts,
stripcuts and selective logging together) was 0.53%,
but total forest disturbance within protected areas
was greater than in non-protected forest (0.66% versus
0.50%, respectively), and so was the annual rate
of selective logging (i.e. without clearcuts, 0.37%
versus 0.25%, respectively). Our results highlight that
monitoring only clearcuts without assessing selective
logging might result in significant underestimation of
forest disturbance. Also, when timber harvesting is
important for the local economy and when protected
areas have valuable timber resources that have already
been depleted elsewhere, then additional protection
may be necessary in order to maintain natural forests
within protected areas. We suggest that this is the
situation in our study area in Western Siberia right
now and is likely the situation in many other parts of
the globe as well.
File: Shchur2017_monitoring_selective_logging_with_landsat_EnvCons.pdf
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Historical land use may shape landscapes for
centuries into the future, but it remains unclear how much
land-use legacies affect contemporary land use. Knowing
for how long and how strongly land-use legacies affect
agricultural systems is important for contemporary landuse
planning and conservation. We assessed the effect of
nineteenth-century agricultural legacies for contemporary
agricultural abandonment by integrating historic maps and
satellite imagery in the Carpathian region. We modeled the
choice of agricultural land, and the legacies of Habsburg
and Socialist regimes, while controlling for agroecological,
accessibility and sociopolitical variation.
Farming during the Habsburg era was concentrated in agroecologically
suitable areas, but socialist agricultural
expansion occurred mostly in less suitable areas, leading to
subsequent abandonment. In addition, our results showed
that historic land use affected abandonment even 100 years
later. Although legacies diminished over time, their effects
were amplified when political transformations occurred,
likely due to land tenure systems, land owner attitudes,
cultural values and differences in land improvement over
time. Taken together, land-use legacies and shifts in
political systems can constrain current land management
and possible future land-use options, suggesting that contemporary
land-use decisions
File: Munteanu2017_Article_Nineteenth-centuryLand-useLega.pdf
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