Lakeshore zoning has heterogeneous ecological effects: an application of a coupled economic-ecological model

Housing growth has been widely shown to be negatively correlated with wildlife populations, avian richness, anadromous fish, and exotic invasion. Zoning is the most frequently used public policy to manage housing development and is often motivated by a desire to protect the environment. Zoning is also pervasive, taking place in all 50 states. One relevant question that has received little research concerns the effectiveness of zoning to meet ecological goals. In this paper, we examined whether minimum frontage zoning policies have made a positive impact on the lakes they were aimed to protect in Vilas County, Wisconsin, USA. We used an economic model that estimated when a given lot will be subdivided and how many new lots will be created as a function of zoning. Using the economic model, we simulated the effects of multiple zoning scenarios on lakeshore development. The simulated development patterns were then input to ecological models that predicted the amount of coarse woody debris (CWD) and the growth rate of bluegills as a function of residential density. Comparison of the ecological outcomes under different simulated zoning scenarios quantified the effect of zoning policies on residential density, CWD, and bluegill growth rates. Our results showed that zoning significantly affected residential density, CWD counts, and bluegill growth rates across our study area, although the effect was less clear at the scale of individual lake. Our results suggest that homogeneous zoning (i.e., for a county) is likely to have mixed results when applied to a heterogeneous landscape. Further, our results suggest that zoning regimes with a higher minimum shoreline frontage are likely to have larger ecological effects when applied to lakes that are less developed.

File: Butsic_etal_2010.pdf

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European Bison habitat in the Carpathian Mountains

European Bison (Bison bonasus) barely escaped extinction in the early 20th century and now only occur in small isolated herds scattered across Central and Eastern Europe. The species' survival in the wild depends on identifying suitable habitat for establishing bison metapopulations via reintroductions of new herds. We assessed European Bison habitat across the Carpathian Mountains, a stronghold of European Bison and one of the only places where a viable bison metapopulation may be possible. We used maximum entropy models to analyze herd range maps and habitat use data from radio-collared bison to identify key habitat variables and map European Bison habitat across the entire Carpathian ecoregion (210,000 km2). Forest cover (primarily core and perforated forests) and variables linked to human disturbance best predict bison habitat suitability. Bison show no clear preference for particular forest types but prefer managed grasslands over fallow and abandoned fields. Several large, suitable, but currently unoccupied habitat patches exist, particularly in the eastern Carpathians. This available suitable habitat suggests that European Bison have an opportunity to establish a viable Carpathian metapopulation, especially if recent trends of declining human pressure and reforestation of abandoned farmland continue. Our results also confirm the suitability of a proposed romanian reintroduction site. Establishing the first European Bison metapopulation would be a milestone in efforts to conserve this species in the wild and demonstrate a significant and hopeful step towards conserving large grazers and their ecological roles in human-dominated landscapes across the globe.

File: Kuemmerle_etal_BioCon_2010.pdf

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Wildlife survival beyond park boundaries: the impact of slash-and-burn agriculture and hunting on mammals in Tambopata, Peru.

Finding a balance between strict protection and multiple use requires data on wildlife survival in human-managed ecosystems. We examined the habitat use and species composition of mammals = 2 kg in size inhabiting an agroforest ecosystem neighboring a park in the Peruvian Amazon. First, we recorded wildlife presence in fields, fallows, and forests within one settlement over a 9-month period. Then we monitored wildlife presence over 21 months in 42 fields across a 65-km transect, including remote and highly disturbed sites. We tested for correlations between the size and number of mammal species visiting fields and human activities measured at different scales. Hunting intensity more powerfully predicted the average biomass and species diversity observed in fields than did vegetation disturbance. The number of commercial hunters in the surrounding community had a stronger impact than did the individual field owner's hunting intensity. Large-bodied species appeared only in remote farms neighboring uninhabited areas in the reserve, indicating that undisturbed forests act as sources for wildlife dispersing into agricultural regions. Farmers in these remote areas experience greater crop and livestock losses to wildlife, but by hunting large game they are able to offset losses with bushmeat gains. In more disturbed areas, crop losses exceeded bushmeat gains, although both occurred at negligible levels. Our case study suggests that large herbivores, large carnivores, and most primates are unlikely to persist in multiple-use zones in Amazonian forests unless hunting is effectively restricted. Even highly disturbed agroforests are not empty of wildlife, however, but are inhabited by a suite of adaptable, fast-reproducing species able to withstand human activity (e.g., brown agoutis [ Dasyprocta variegata ], armadillos [ Dasypus novemcinetus ], and red brocket deer [ Mazama gauazoubira ]). These weedy species may not be of immediate concern to conservation biologists, and they will not attract tourists. But they have both economic and ecological value and deserve to be taken into account in management decisions.

File: Naughton_etal_ConsBio2003.pdf

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Rural and Suburban Sprawl in the U.S. Midwest from 1940 to 2000 and Its Relation to Forest Fragmentation

Housing growth and its environmental effects pose major conservation challenges. We sought to (1) quantify spatial and temporal patterns of housing growth across the U.S. Midwest from 1940-2000, (2) identify ecoregions strongly affected by housing growth, (3) assess the extent to which forests occur near housing, and (4) relate housing to forest fragmentation. We used data from the 2000 U.S. Census to derive fine-scale backcasts of decadal housing density. Housing data were integrated with a 30-m resolution U.S. Geological Survey land cover classification. The number of housing units in the Midwest grew by 146% between 1940 and 2000. Spatially, housing growth was particularly strong at the fringe of metropolitan areas (suburban sprawl) and in nonmetropolitan areas (rural sprawl) that are rich in natural amenities such as lakes and forests. The medium-density housing (4-32 housing units/km2) category increased most in area. Temporally, suburban housing growth was especially high in the post-World War II decades. Rural sprawl was highest in the 1970s and 1990s. The majority of midwestern forests either contained or were near housing. Only 14.8% of the region's forests were in partial block groups with no housing. Housing density was negatively correlated with the amount of interior forest. The widespread and pervasive nature of sprawl shown by our data is cause for conservation concern. Suburban sprawl has major environmental impacts on comparatively small areas because of the high number of housing units involved. In contrast, rural sprawl affects larger areas but with less intensity because associated housing densities are lower. The environmental effects per house, however, are likely higher in the case of rural sprawl because it occurs in less-altered areas. Conservation efforts will need to address both types of sprawl to be successful.

File: Radeloff_etal_ConsBio2005.pdf

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Spatial patterns of cone serotiny in Pinus banksiana in relation to fire disturbance

Fire disturbance effects on tree species distribution and landscape pattern have been widely studied. However, the effects of differences among fire regimes on the spatial pattern of genetic variability within a tree species have received less attention. The objectives of this study were to examine (a) whether the marked gradient in serotiny in Pinus banksiana along its southern range limit is related to differences in fire regimes and (b) at what scale serotiny varies most strongly in P. banksiana in the US Midwest. P. banksiana in the 450,000 ha Pine Barrens area in northwestern Wisconsin, USA showed a marked broad scale pattern in serotiny. The percentage of serotinous trees was highest in the northeast (mean 83%, S.D. 13.5) and lowest in the southwest (mean 9%, S.D. 3.7). Historic fire regimes were inferred from pre-European settlement (mid-1800s) vegetation data. Serotiny was highest in pine forests that exhibited stand-replacing fires, and lowest in savannas where more frequent but less intense ground fires occurred. The data presented in this study suggest possible spatial control of genetic variability within a tree species by an ecological process (disturbance) at the landscape-scale.

File: Radeloff_etal_FEM2004.pdf

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Modeling forest harvesting effects on landscape pattern in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens

Forest management shapes landscape patterns, and these patterns often differ significantly from those typical for natural disturbance regimes. This may affect wildlife habitat and other aspects of ecosystem function. Our objective was to examine the effects of different forest management decisions on landscape pattern in a fire adapted ecosystem. We used a factorial design experiment in LANDIS (a forest landscape simulation model) to test the effects of: (a) cut unit size, (b) minimum harvest age and (c) target species for management. Our study area was the Pine Barrens of northwestWisconsin, an area where fire suppression has caused a lack of large open areas important for wildlife. Our results show that all three management choices under investigation (cut unit size, minimum harvest age and target species for management) have strong effects on forest composition and landscape patterns. Cut unit size is the most important factor influencing landscape pattern, followed by target species for management (either jack pine or red pine) and then minimum harvest age. Open areas are more abundant, and their average size is larger, when cut units are larger, target species is jack pine, and minimum harvest age is lower. Such information can assist forest managers to relate stand level management decision to landscape patterns.

File: Radeloff_etal_FEM_2006.pdf

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Modeling the influence of dynamic zoning of forest harvesting on a Northern Wisconsin Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.

File: Zollner_etal_EM_2005.pdf

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Paying the extinction debt in southern Wisconsin forest understories.

The lack of long-term baseline data restricts the ability to measure changes in biological diversity directly and to determine its cause. This hampers conservation efforts and limits testing of basic tenets of ecology and conservation biology. We used a historical baseline survey to track shifts in the abundance and distribution of 296 native understory species across 82 sites over 55 years in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. We resurveyed stands first surveyed in the early 1950s to evaluate the influence of patch size and surrounding land cover on shifts in native plant richness and heterogeneity and to evaluate changes in the relative importance of local site conditions versus the surrounding landscape context as drivers of community composition and structure. Larger forests and those with more surrounding forest cover lost fewer species, were more likely to recruit new species, and had lower rates of homogenization than smaller forests in more fragmented landscapes. Nearby urbanization further reduced both alpha and beta understory diversity. Similarly, understory composition depended strongly on local site conditions in the original survey but only weakly reflected the surrounding landscape composition. By 2005, however, the relative importance of these factors had reversed such that the surrounding landscape structure is now a much better predictor of understory composition than are local site conditions. Collectively, these results strongly support the idea that larger intact habitat patches and landscapes better sustain native species diversity and demonstrate that humans play an increasingly important role in driving patterns of native species diversity and community composition.

File: Rogers_etal_ConsBio_2009.pdf

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Influence of forest planning alternatives on landscape pattern and ecosystem processes in northern Wisconsin, USA

Incorporating an ecosystem management perspective into forest planning requires consideration of the impacts of timber management on a suite of landscape characteristics at broad spatial and long temporal scales. We used the LANDIS forest landscape simulation model to predict forest composition and landscape pattern under seven alternative forest management plans drafted for the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in Wisconsin. We analyzed 20 response variables representing changes in landscape characteristics that relate to eight timber and wildlife management objectives. AMANOVA showed significant variation in the response variables among the alternative management plans. For most (16 out of 20) response variables, plans ranked either directly or inversely to the extent of even-aged management. The amount of hemlock on the landscape had a surprising positive relationship with even-aged management because hemlock is never cut, even in a clear cut. Our results also show that multiple management objectives can create conflicts related to the amount and arrangement of management activities. For example, American marten and ruffed grouse habitat are maintained by mutually exclusive activities. Our approach demonstrates a way to evaluate alternative management plans and assess if they are likely to meet their stated, multiple objectives. 2008 by Elsevier B.V.

File: Zollner-etal-FEM-2008.pdf

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Forest Visualization for Management and Planning in Wisconsin.

Participation by the public in the management process of public forested lands has led to innovation in the visual simulation of management options. So far, visualization technology has largely been used by researchers and consultants, not by natural resource managers themselves. A three-dimensional forest visualization system, developed for use by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, incorporates a library of photographs of trees, snags, and even logging debris in an effort to depict forest management activities realistically. Managers need only limited training to quickly generate visualizations depicting a specific stand or an entire landscape in its current and potential future states under a variety of silvicultural treatments. We describe the components of the system so that it can be recreated for other regions.

File: Stoltman_et_al_JOF_2004.pdf

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